Thailand's beleaguered government, plagued by street protests over an ill-advised attempt to help ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, faces a fresh challenge Wednesday when a court rules on its attempt to amend the constitution.
Whether the Constitutional Court's action amounts to a minor skirmish or a major battle in the long-running war between supporters and opponents of Thaksin — who fled into exile to avoid a two-year jail term for corruption — depends on the verdict and how the parties react to it.
A worst-case scenario could end up with a court ruling leading to the disbanding of the pro-Thaksin ruling party and the dissolution of parliament. More worrying is that such a ruling could anger Thaksin's supporters and embolden his opponents, setting the stage for the kind of violent conflict that has marred the country's politics in the not-too-distant past.
Such an outcome is not impossible, as the courts have played a vanguard role in the battles against Thaksin even before he was deposed by a 2006 military coup after being accused of corruption and disrespect for the monarchy.
Rangsit University political scientist Thamrongsak Petchlertanan said the current political situation and involvement of the court meant the country was "living under a 'Constitutional Court' monarchy."
With Thaksin's side having an overwhelming electoral mandate, he said the court was "the last fortress of the establishment and the authoritarians."
"This is a war between the legislative branch and the judicial branch," Thamrongsak said.
A similar court ruling in 2006 encouraged Thaksin's opponents before the coup.
The proposed amendment would require all Senators to be elected, rather than split their seats between elected and appointed members. The change was proposed and passed by the ruling Pheu Thai Party of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra — Thaksin's sister — which has an absolute majority in the Lower House.
Several objections were filed with the court. The substantive complaints argue that adopting the amendment violates the constitution because it involves support for overthrowing the system of government. A court ruling supporting that could throw out Thaksin-allied lawmakers who signed off on the change.
But Thaksin's supporters, having learned from previous defeats in the court, can be assumed to have made arrangements for the snap establishment of a replacement party.
The current constitution became law in 2007, after the 2006 coup abrogated the 1997 constitution. The 1997 constitution, which received strong support from almost every segment of society, called for all senators to be directly elected.
Conservative elements in Thai society found the democratic elements of the 1997 charter too democratic for their liking, opening the way for what they viewed as a "parliamentary dictatorship" that billionaire Thaksin was able to buy into being.
The 2007 constitution, drafted by Thaksin's critics, was adopted by a national referendum on a take-it-or-leave it basis.
The battle for power turned ugly, with Thaksin's opponents, the so-called Yellow Shirts — going so far as to occupy the prime minister's offices for three months and Bangkok's two airports for a week.
Thaksin's supporters — the Red Shirts — showed muscle of their own in 2010 when they tried to force an anti-Thaksin government to step down. Their occupation of parts of the capital ended with the military using arms to suppress the protest, leaving more than 90 people dead.
Yingluck swept to power in a 2011 general election and some semblance of peace was restored.
But the schism over Thaksin remains. Last month his backers in parliament tried some legislative sleight-of-hand to grant him amnesty, but a public uproar forced Yingluck's government to retreat.
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